Best & Worst: 2020-2021 Draft Edition

[Texas Rangers]

With the 2020-2021 draft now complete and the start of the season now upon us, here is the absolute best draft analysis in the entire league (until someone else posts their own draft analysis ). NOTE: I did not punish teams who picked players that ended up getting injured after they picked them, or anything else out of their control. Also, I left off rounds 13-15. I will post the first 6 rounds today with rounds 7-12 coming tomorrow.


ROUND 1

BEST: C.J. Abrams, SS - Los Angeles Dodgers

Overall, this was a fairly weak 1st round. Where the draft lacked high-end talent, it made up for in depth. Because of the lack of obvious "right-now" players, it makes sense to go after high-ceiling prospects, and Abrams fits the bill. He is likely not going to get the call up this season, but with the expanded rosters and Dodgers depth, stashing a high-end prospect like Abrams makes for a great pick. A potential infield of Goldschmidt, Abrams, Ramirez, and Story in 2022 and beyond is scary.

Other picks I liked: Ian Anderson (SP), Dominic Smith (1B/LF)

WORST: Andrew Benintendi, LF - Philadelphia Phillies

Having been Benintendi's manager the previous few seasons, I know all too well the frustration. Seemingly always hurt and even when he did play, he wasn't very productive. Maybe a new home in Kansas City will be good for him and he has reportedly bulked-up, but I'll believe it when I see it. ESPN's projections of around 15/15/.275 I believe is Benintendi's ceiling. Phillies would've been better off just taking one of the several elite RP available, instead of ultimately giving up a future 1st and 2nd for Edwin Diaz.


ROUND 2

BEST: Teoscar Hernandez, RF - Seattle Mariners

Mariners already had Castellanos at RF when he selected Hernandez, but in going best-available, I thought this was a solid pick. Hernandez is someone who can help right away, as well as the next few years while he is in the middle of his prime at 28 years old. Honorable Mention to the elite RP taken in this round, but they essentially cancelled each other out.

Other picks I liked: Liam Hendricks (RP), Edwin Diaz (RP)

WORST: Framber Valdez, SP - Atlanta Braves

Even if Valdez had not gotten hurt, I would have still put him as the worst pick. There were so many similar SP available in this draft, that Braves could have waited a few rounds to get someone as good, or even better, than Valdez. While Valdez had a good 2020 season, it came out of nowhere after struggling in previous seasons, and some advanced stats indicated 2020 could have been a fluke.


ROUND 3

BEST (tie): Charlie Morton, SP - Texas Rangers; Dylan Bundy, SP - Miami Marlins

I went back-and-forth between selecting Morton and Bundy with my pick, and went with the higher ceiling that I believe Morton possesses, plus playing for a better team and now in the NL. Bundy, a former top prospect, has finally started to put everything together the last couple seasons. There was a drop in SP tiers after these 2 were selected.

Other picks I liked: Michael Brantley, LF

WORST: Jonathan Villar, 2B/SS - Boston Red Sox

This was a risky pick considering Villar was a FA at the time he was selected. And it was fairly well-known at the time that he likely wasn't going to be a full-time starter wherever he ended up signing. That is exactly the case with the Mets. He will be a utility player, and while injuries can happen, even as a full-time player he would be average at best. On top of that, other 2B-eligible that would've been better picks went later in the draft, including Ryan McMahon, Nick Solak, David Fletcher, and Dylan Moore.

Other picks I didn't like: Tommy Edman (3B/SS/RF), Frankie Montas (SP), Andres Gimenez (2B/3B/SS), Raimel Tapia (LF)

[Texas Rangers]

ROUND 4

BEST: Nelson Cruz, DH - San Francisco Giants

As far as consistent production, they don't come much better than Cruz. In the 6 full seasons since leaving the MLB Rangers in 2014 (at 33 years old mind you), Cruz has averaged 41 HR (low of 37), 307 TB, 105 RBI (low of 93), and a .286 batting average. And he was on pace for similar numbers in the 2020 shortened season. He has showed no signs of slowing down and is a great bat to group with Giants young talent. Cruz is the type of talent that can help a team compete, or be used as trade bait to a contending team. Either way, he provides great value despite only being a DH.

Other picks I liked: I initially liked the Varsho (Marlins) and Gonsolin (Dodgers) picks at the time, but since then Varsho struggled in spring training and was sent down. He's still only 24 years old. As a C-eligible player with potential, I like him, but his value is tied to catcher eligibility. Gonsolin had a strong 2020, but the Dodgers pitching depth (the signing of Bauer) pushed him to a likely bullpen role, and now he's injured.

WORST: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B/SS - Toronto Blue Jays

Similar to Varsho, I feel that most of Kiner-Falefa's value was tied to his C eligibility, and I believe Jays selected him here thinking he would still be eligible there. He's certainly a solid player otherwise, but doesn't provide much that stands out in regards to fantasy. Would've been a good FA pick-up or end-of-draft player for infield depth, but 4th round is way too high when other 3B like McMahon (4th), Escobar (8th), and Anderson (10th) went later.

Other picks I didn't like: Marcus Stroman (SP)


ROUND 5

BEST: Marco Luciano, SS - Miami Marlins

Luciano still has some time to go before he's likely productive in the major leagues, but with the added roster spots and lack of available top prospects, Corey grabbed one he can stash away as a good chunk of his roster is aging. We'll see if it pays off. It takes a lot for me to choose a prospect as my best pick, but felt this round had a bunch of "good" picks, but not really any "great" ones.

Other picks I liked: Kenley Jansen (RP), Drew Pomeranz (RP), Kirby Yates (RP) - it was a great pick at the time, ok?!

WORST: A.J. Puk, RP - New York Yankees

Puk is the type of post-hype prospect to take a flier on in the late rounds, not in the 5th round when there are PLENTY of solid RP still available. This was solidified when Yankees ultimately dropped Puk during the FA period. Puk has always had upside, but just hasn't been able to stay healthy, pitching fewer than 200 innings total since being drafted 5 years ago -- 125 of those innings coming in 1 season (2017).


ROUND 6

BEST: Clint Frazier, RF - Philadelphia Phillies

This wasn't a great round for stand-out picks either, but I've always felt Frazier possessed immense potential, he just needed to be given the opportunity. I drafted him 4 years ago, and it finally looks like he'll get his chance to be a full-time player now in his age-26 season. This, along with the fact that there weren't a lot of good RF options available in the draft makes this a solid pick for a Phillies team I felt had a poor draft overall.

WORST: None - You're all off the hook for this round. There was not what I would classify as a "bad pick" in this entire round.

[Texas Rangers]

ROUND 7

BEST: Garrett Crochet, RP - Chicago White Sox

I loved this pick of a guy with high upside, but will also immediately contribute. Crochet is only 21 years old and could be an elite reliever (think Josh Hader), or be stretched out over time as a starter (think Chris Sale). He should be very effective in either role and is a big boost to a pitching staff that needs a lot of help.

Other picks I liked: Zack Eflin (SP)

WORST (tie): Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP - Seattle Mariners; Brendan Rodgers, 2B - New York Yankees

Even in South Korea, Kim was really good, but not spectacular. He never averaged 9+ k/9 and you can typically count on guys coming from South Korea to not do as well in transitioning to the MLB. And at 32 years old, he doesn't possess any un-tapped potential a team like Mariners could use.

I've never really believed in Rodgers as a can't-miss, top prospect. And even with the trade of Arenado, there was no guarantee Rodgers was going to play every day. Hampson was taken 7 rounds later, has multi-position eligibility, only 2 years older, and has more/better big-league experience. Plus, Rodgers has already shown an inability to stay healthy for extended periods of time. He'll likely be given a shot to show what he can do when he is healthy because the Rockies aren't likely to be a playoff contender, but I'm not expecting much.


ROUND 8

BEST: Lorenzo Cain, CF - Los Angeles Dodgers

Cain opted out shortly after the start of the MLB season in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic. He is older at 34 years of age, but has put together solid seasons since 2014, and is the type of player to provide depth and consistency to a contending team like the Dodgers. I expect 10-15 HR, 15-20 SB, and a good amount of runs hitting at the top of the Brewers lineup. With CF becoming seemingly thinner each year, this is a solid addition.

Other picks I liked: Tyler Mahle (SP)

WORST: Kevin Pillar, CF/RF - Seattle Mariners

Pillar has typically been known for his good defensive skills as opposed to a fantasy contributor. As a free agent this last offseason, it was widely known that he would make for a solid 4th OF on a team vs. an every-day starter. Sure enough, he was signed by the Mets as a 4th OF. Mariners had no CF at the time of this pick (not sure if he thought Tapia was still eligible there), and the available options weren't great, but Cain would've been a much stronger pick here to fill that CF hole.


ROUND 9

BEST: Jordan Hicks, RP - Seattle Mariners

This is the type of high-upside pick Mariners should be making on the regular. Hicks, when healthy, can be an elite reliever with overwhelming stuff. Being almost 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery, hopefully the extra rest and rehab results in a strong comeback season for the young hurler.

Other picks I liked: Matt Barnes (RP)

WORST: Carter Kieboom, 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kieboom is still young (23) and has time to figure it out, but he has struggled mightily in his brief time in the majors. With Brian Anderson, J.D. Davis, and Jeimer Candelario still on the board, I thought those would be better picks for a backup 3B. Giants ended up dropping Kieboom after he didn't make the Nationals' roster coming out of Spring Training.