Post by floridamarlins on Mar 25, 2021 18:55:57 GMT -5
Hi everyone! Very excited to embark on another season of the BDBLP. Below you'll find the start of my rankings - I'll be adding 2 teams/day for the next 6 days as we approach Opening Day next Thursday, counting down from 12th place to 1st. The figures for top-20, top-50, etc are based on each player's Average Draft Position in fantasy baseball leagues that have drafted to this point. They're based on everyone's rosters from 5 days ago when I first started putting this together, so recent roster changes (such as adds/drops and Eloy Jimenez's injury) won't be reflected. Also, keep in mind that our league's categories are different than most other leagues, so this isn't a PERFECT reflection of each team's strength (in particular, middle relievers are ranked lower than their value in our league), but it does give some guidance as to why I've ranked everyone where I did. I hope you enjoy reading it, and let's see how bad I end up looking when we compare this to the actual results in the end!
12th Place: Toronto Blue Jays
Top 20: 0 (t-9th)
Top 50: 2 (10th)
Top 100: 3 (12th)
Top 200: 13 (12th)
Top 300: 16 (12th)
It’s been a rough couple years for Ray’s Jays, who haven’t finished better than 9th since the 2015 season. That’s unlikely to change in 2021, with a roster light on high-end talent (only 3 top-100 players) and depth (a league-high 14 players outside the top-300 in ADP). This seems to be design, as he’s loaded up on several promising youngsters who should make an impact in future seasons, but it means there will be many days where he can’t field a full lineup. The pitching also took a hit with Zac Gallen’s hairline fracture, which deprives the staff of its only elite arm for the first few weeks of the season. It will be interesting to see if he decides to trade some of his older players like Nolan Arenado and Marco Gonzales mid-season to contending teams, but otherwise, this team’s focus will have to be on the development of its prospects and brighter days ahead.
11th Place: Chicago White Sox
Top 20: 0 (t-9th)
Top 50: 3 (9th)
Top 100: 7 (t-8th)
Top 200: 15 (t-8th)
Top 300: 24 (t-6th)
Since winning his only championship in 2012 (and making the playoffs in 4 consecutive seasons from 2009-2012), Max’s team hasn’t landed a playoff spot or a winning record in 8 years. The wheels really fell off in 2020, as devastating injuries to Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard decimated his pitching staff. This lowly ranking is once again based on the pitching side, where those aforementioned aces are slated to miss a large chunk of the season and Max Scherzer has begun to show signs of aging. There are a couple of complementary arms behind Scherzer who can help (especially Joe Musgrove), but overall this is a thin staff made even thinner by the injuries. Offensively, things are much more promising, with reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu leading the way. He’ll also welcome the return of top catcher Salvador Perez, with the promising Gavin Lux hoping to rebound from a lost 2020. Between Adalberto Mondesi, Starling Marte and Byron Buxton, speed won’t be hard to come by, and there should be decent balance across all offensive categories. It’s a rigid roster at the moment, with only two multi-position-eligible players, but the increased roster size, whopping 8 offensive bench players, and no spots being utilized for minor league prospects mean that Max should be able to make up for it. If he stays in contention long enough for Severino and Syndergaard to return, this could be a dangerous team in the playoffs, but odds are this season will culminate in a 9th straight losing record.
10th Place: Seattle Mariners
Top 20: 0 (t-12th)
Top 50: 0 (12th)
Top 100: 10 (t-3rd)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 22 (8th)
With only 1 playoff appearance in the past 12 seasons, Bono is hoping 2020’s team name change will also lead to a change of fortune. Unfortunately, his roster is devoid of elite talent, as he’s the only team in the league without a top-50 player. He’s tried to make up with it in depth and volume, as most of his players project to have significant major league roles this season and several are established veterans. The offense’s hopes rest on Randy Arozarena, whose legendary 2020 playoff run might propel him to stardom, but comes with a caveat of small sample size. Beyond that, Yasmani Grandal and Nick Castellanos are probably the only solidly above-average players on that side of the ball. The starting pitching lacks depth & quantity, with only Lance Lynn and injury-prone Hyun Jin Ryu likely to go deep into games and rack up wins/QS. There’s some young talent here, especially World Series hero Julio Urias, but not enough of it to raise the staff to even an average level. However, the relief pitching is well stocked and should supplement the starters. Meanwhile, the strange fascination with Tampa Bay prospect Brett Honeywell continues - Bono has surprisingly carried Honeywell as a keeper since 2017, despite Honeywell undergoing Tommy John surgery and never pitching in a major league game.
9th Place: San Francisco Giants
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 4 (t-6th)
Top 100: 8 (t-6th)
Top 200: 14 (11th)
Top 300: 20 (10th)
Despite the top-end talent, it’s hard to give Phil the benefit of the doubt, considering his woeful 13-49-4 record from 2017-2019 coupled with a 10th place finish in the abbreviated 2020 season. That said, his team is beginning to show signs of coming out of its prolonged slump and finally has a chance to contend for the first time in years. No team has a brighter pair of stars than Juan Soto and Mookie Betts, whose all-around brilliance will provide a strong offensive foundation. In fact, the offense as a whole should be highly competitive, as some of the long-awaited prospects like Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio have started to blossom into excellent major leaguers. He’ll benefit from the return of the powerful Yordan Alvarez, and he’s supplemented the core with the ageless Nelson Cruz to provide even more pop. However, there’s some roster flexibility concerns, as only two players currently possess multi-position eligibility and Cruz/Alvarez are DH-only. True to form, Phil is also using a couple of offensive bench spots on players far from the majors (Adley Rutschman and Vidal Brujan). When injuries and off days hit, the inflexible roster composition will likely cost Phil important volume and opportunities to pile up numbers. The pitching side is much less promising, as Jose Berrios is arguably the only trustworthy arm on the entire staff. Beyond that, it’s largely a collection of talented but unproven young arms, who could prove volatile in the ratio categories while also being unable to rack up big wins/quality starts because of inning caps, careful management, and/or starting the year in the minors. Two mid-level RP aren’t going to overcome the shaky starters, and the pitching woes will ultimately sink Phil for yet another sub-.500 season.
8th Place: Atlanta Braves
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 4 (t-6th)
Top 100: 6 (t-10th)
Top 200: 15 (t-8th)
Top 300: 19 (11th)
The Braves have taken their team name quite literally, with a staggering 10 actual Atlanta Braves on the roster (6 hitters and 4 pitchers). Although MLB’s Braves should have a strong season, this lack of diversification will leave him prone to slumps and unable to replace some of his starting lineup when the Braves have a day off. The offense is above-average, led by its corner infielders - Freddy Freeman and Manny Machado are both among the best players in the league. Batting average should be a particular strength, and there’s enough speed & power to complement (especially if Aaron Judge can finally stay healthy). Nick Senzel was one of the best picks of this year’s drafts as a post-hype sleeper, and strong spring trainings from Bobby Witt and Taylor Trammell give this team some youth & upside coming from the bench. The problem is the pitching. Ian Anderson is theoretically the staff ace, but with only 6 career starts under his belt, he’s hardly a proven #1. There’s also very little depth behind him, especially with Mike Soroka coming off a serious Achilles injury and Framber Valdez likely to miss a large portion of the season with a broken finger. With perennially inconsistent Robbie Ray and shaky Frankie Montas also already battling some minor injuries and the other starters beginning the year in the minors, there’s just not enough here to realistically stay competitive in the pitching categories. The trio of relievers are decent, but not the types of players to carry a staff, which will leave Patrick on the outside of the playoffs when all is said and done.
7th Place: Chicago Cubs
Top 20: 0 (t-9th)
Top 50: 1 (11th)
Top 100: 6 (t-10th)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 26 (5th)
It’s been a great run for Debbie’s Cubbies, with a championship in 2018 mixed among 5 playoff trips in 6 seasons from 2015-2020. Those teams were built on dominant pitching staffs, but Cubs has been absolutely decimated by serious injuries to the core of her team (Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber). The rankings and statistics would justify a Cubs ranking of 10th-11th place, as having only one top-50 player and 6 top-100 players both rank among the bottom of the league. However, Debbie has shown a consistent pattern of over-performing her beginning ranks, mostly on the basis of tremendous team depth, solid managerial skill, and a stubborn refusal to rebuild or give up on the chance to contend despite an aging roster. There’s probably not enough top-end talent for another championship run, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cubbies land the 5th or 6th playoff spot.
6th Place: New York Yankees
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 5 (5th)
Top 100: 9 (5th)
Top 200: 15 (t-8th)
Top 300: 21 (9th)
After mostly dominating BDBLP for the first half of the league’s existence, Denis has cooled off a bit in recent years, missing the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, before starting to round into form again with a 6th place finish in 2019 and 4th place finish in 2020. The long-term future looks bright, with super-prospects Wander Franco, Jared Kelenic and Mackenzie Gore on the verge of making a major-league impact to supplement an already-strong roster. But with all three of those players starting the season in the minors, the question becomes: will Denis’ focus on long-term success hurt his ability to compete in the present? If he starts slowly, the temptation will be there to sell off veteran pieces and tank for a premium draft pick, and there are enough early-season uncertainties to expect that a slow start could be in the works. Offensively, the core of the team revolves around star outfielders Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, as well as Corey Seager manning SS. There’s untapped upside for newly-skinny Vlad Guerrero Jr that could take this offense into elite territory. And speaking of upside, there might be no more volatile player in the league than two-way wunderkind Shohei Ohtani, whose range of outcomes include potential MVP candidate but also last year’s disastrous .185 hitting/37.80 ERA season. The decision to carry only Alejandro Kirk at catcher (assuming he doesn’t make a roster move before Opening Day) is highly questionable, especially given that Kirk doesn’t project to even be the starting catcher on his own team – and those lost at bats will be a lost opportunity. The decision to carry 4 Colorado Rockies could lead to streaky weeks, booming during Coors Field homestands but cooling off on road-heavy weeks. The offense also has a few categorical holes, as both walks and stolen bases are projected to be relatively weak relative to other top-tier teams. While the pitching was actually the stronger side of this team in 2020, I don’t love the composition of this year’s staff. The SP on the roster are all excellent, but there are only 4 of them at the moment (plus Ohtani). That could make it hard to compete in wins/quality starts/strikeouts. And carrying 6 RP feels like overkill, particularly when none of them are particularly lights-out. So while the overall talent on this team is probably somewhere in the #3-#4 range, and the young guns would make him a dangerous team by playoff time, the existing roster imbalance/shaky structure have landed Denis at #6 to start the season.
5th Place: Boston Red Sox
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 4 (t-6th)
Top 100: 8 (t-6th)
Top 200: 18 (t-2nd)
Top 300: 24 (t-6th)
The past two years have mostly been a disaster in Beantown, with a 6-13-3 record in 2019 followed by an 11th place finish in the shortened 2020 season. However, AJ has a long track record of success in the league, and he’s assembled a dangerous squad poised for a rebound. Perennial top-5 superstar OF Mike Trout is the foundation of the offense, and he’s surrounded by other potent veteran bats like JD Martinez, Kris Bryant, and Xander Bogaerts along with up-and-coming players like Yoan Moncada and Dylan Carlson. A deep bench should provide strong roster flexibility and volume as well. On the pitching side, Lucas Giolito’s emergence has positioned the Sox with 4 potential Cy Young candidates, as Jacob DeGrom, Stephen Strasburg and Tyler Glasnow flank him for easily the strongest #1-#4 in the league. He’ll hope that Corey Kluber, a former Cy Young winner in his own right, can find his old form and bounce back to provide additional depth. Meanwhile, top prospect Matt Manning looms as a potential impact player in the later part of the season and a quartet of proven relief pitchers should supplement the staff nicely. AJ’s fascination with certain players (namely Jonathan Villar and Brendan McKay) can be hard to comprehend, and parts of this roster are past their prime, but those are relatively minor critiques when there are so many elite players on this squad.
4th Place: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 6 (t-2nd)
Top 100: 12 (2nd)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 28 (t-1st)
Chris has strung together a great run in recent years, with 7 straight playoff bids. He’s a good bet to get there again this year, with a great combination of elite high-end talent and impressive depth. However, the offense wavered a bit last year (finishing 9th in the offensive categories compared to 1st on the pitching side) and there are a bit more age-and-injury question marks on this roster than you’ll find on the #1-#3 teams, which is why he’s slotted in here at #4. The left side of the infield are where the stars reside on offense, with Jose Ramirez and Trevor Story among the top hitters in all of MLB, but it remains to be seen how Story’s numbers might be affected if/when he is traded out of Coors Field ahead of his impending free agency. The remarkable Paul Goldschmidt appears to be entering his decline after many years of top-tier output, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether Giancarlo Stanton and George Springer will stay healthy enough to give this offense a chance at being elite. However, Chris has wisely stocked the bench with capable backups at all positions, so that helps mitigate the injury risks a bit. The strength of this team has historically been the pitching staff, and that should continue to be the case in 2021. Yu Darvish is the top dog, and his move to San Diego should only help his win/loss potential. Kenta Maeda and Brandon Woodruff are strong #2-#3 starters behind him, and there’s strong upside from the rest of the SP as well. However, injuries have already hit Dinelson Lamet and Carlos Carrasco, and Tony Gonsolin was unable to crack the Dodgers’ historically-great rotation, so there is some tangible downside to go with that upside this time around...Lamet in particular strikes me as a big injury risk. The relievers are probably BDBLP’s best from a skill/ratios standpoint, but with only 3 of them, he’s susceptible to losing saves/holds to some teams anyway. Still, if enough of his players stay healthy, this is a team with championship upside.
3rd Place: Miami Marlins
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 6 (t-2nd)
Top 100: 7 (t-8th)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 28 (t-1st)
In what has been a recurring theme throughout league history, I finished in 2nd place in 2020 for the 2nd season in a row. That brings me up to at least six 2nd place finishes over the years (I’ve lost count at this point), but I’ve still somehow failed to capture an elusive championship despite so many close calls. Consistently among BDBLP’s elite teams, my Marlins have made the playoffs for 7 years in a row and haven’t had a losing record since 2008, and that’s unlikely to change in 2021. Offensively, it begins with star SS Trea Turner, whose power/speed combo landed him at #2 overall on the Player Rater in 2020 behind only Freddy Freeman. He’s flanked on the infield by hit machine DJ LeMahieu, breakout power hitter Brandon Lowe, and the talented but injury-prone Josh Donaldson, to give Marlins one of the strongest infields in the league. The outfield is relatively less impressive after the trade of Trent Grisham, although Kyle Tucker finally showed signs of breaking out in 2020 and Trey Mancini returns after winning his battle with colon cancer. Otherwise, it’ll be a matter of mixing & matching 4 lefties with significant right/left splits (Pederson/Schwarber/Nimmo/Hicks). Meanwhile, rookie-of-the-year candidate Andrew Vaughn brings a jolt of youthful upside to the UTIL/BENCH corps. Roster flexibility is also a strength, with at least three players eligible at every position except catcher and SS (2 each). After finishing tied for 1st place w/ the Phillies on offense in last season’s roto standings, the pieces are there to repeat that on the offensive side. The pitching staff has been rebuilt around reigning Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. With Bauer, Walker Buehler and newly-acquired Luis Castillo all ranking among the top 11 in ADP, there are three aces leading this full house (a league-high 12 SP on the roster). By electing not to roster any relief pitchers, there is tremendous depth behind the three aces, as all 12 of those SP are healthy and projected to start the season in their respective rotations. It remains to be seen if the zero-RP strategy will work as well as I think it will, as the ratios could suffer (on top of automatic losses in saves/holds on a weekly basis), but there’s plenty of talent and volume here. An 8th consecutive playoff bid seems likely, but only a championship can be considered a success at this point.
2nd Place: Texas Rangers
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 6 (t-2nd)
Top 100: 10 (t-3rd)
Top 200: 20 (1st)
Top 300: 28 (t-1st)
Andy has consistently landed among the top tier of BDBLP, with 12 playoff appearances in the past 13 seasons and multiple championships along the way. He drafts well, he trades well, he identifies talent well, and he manages his daily lineups and roster construction well. As the ADP numbers indicate, the 2021 rendition of his team is once again loaded and ready for championship contention. Leading the way is the precocious Fernando Tatis Jr, one of the most electric players in the league and a strong contender for the best player in fantasy baseball (ADP slots him at #2 behind only Ronald Acuna). He’s hardly the only standout on this offense, with Bryce Harper, Matt Chapman, Tim Anderson, and Will Smith all among the top options at their respective positions. On top of that, Andy has covered his bases with solid depth across the diamond that will help him cover for injuries – which are already rearing their head with Eloy Jimenez’s shoulder knocking him out for a large chunk of the season. There are a couple of question marks here – are the Dodgers seriously going to limit Will Smith to 90 games like they’ve suggested? Can Keston Hiura get his strikeouts under control and play good enough defense to stay on the field? Is Trent Grisham a one-hit wonder? But every team has questions, and with this kind of depth, there will be answers even when things don’t go according to plan. The pitching staff took a hit with the trade of Luis Castillo to the Marlins, but any staff that begins with Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw is going to look pretty great. And there’s some serious heat brewing in the bullpen (see what I did there), as dynamic duo Josh Hader and Devin Williams will significantly boost this staff’s ratios and save/hold potential. Still, the depth has taken a few hits during the spring after David Price failed to crack the Dodgers rotation (albeit in favor of Dustin May who is also on the Rangers) and Spencer Howard was also designated for a bullpen role. There are other teams with a stronger #3-#6 SP, so despite the elite arms at the top, I don’t think this is the best staff in the league overall. The #2-#4 teams in these rankings (Rangers/Marlins/Dodgers) were ‘flip-a-coin’ close to each other in my reviews. Still, this is a high-floor team because of the depth, and another playoff bid should be coming unless things really go south.
1st Place: Philadelphia Phillies
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 9 (1st)
Top 100: 14 (1st)
Top 200: 18 (t-2nd)
Top 300: 27 (4th)
Coming off his first championship in 2020, Jonathan’s team enters 2021 as the clear frontrunners in my opinion. With a dominant 9 players in the top 50 ADP (3 more than any other team), this roster is star-studded with the likes of consensus #1 player Ronald Acuna, reigning AL Cy Young Shane Bieber, consensus #1 catcher JT Realmuto, and a fantastic infield that features the studly Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman, Ozzie Albies, and Anthony Rendon. I don’t think Jonathan had a great draft this offseason, but when you have a core like this, does it even matter? This offense tied with the Marlins for the most roto points last season, finishing no worse than 4th in any category, and there’s no reason to think that’ll change in 2021. If there’s a relative weakness on the team, it’s probably the starting pitching, but rolling out Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray and Zach Wheeler is still a hugely formidable top 4. Paired alongside 5 strong RP, it will be challenging to beat this team in the ratio categories and there could be weeks where it’s a clean sweep. With most of the roster comprised of proven players in the midst of their prime, this team is built to win now – and they’re likely to do a lot of winning before this year is done.
12th Place: Toronto Blue Jays
Top 20: 0 (t-9th)
Top 50: 2 (10th)
Top 100: 3 (12th)
Top 200: 13 (12th)
Top 300: 16 (12th)
It’s been a rough couple years for Ray’s Jays, who haven’t finished better than 9th since the 2015 season. That’s unlikely to change in 2021, with a roster light on high-end talent (only 3 top-100 players) and depth (a league-high 14 players outside the top-300 in ADP). This seems to be design, as he’s loaded up on several promising youngsters who should make an impact in future seasons, but it means there will be many days where he can’t field a full lineup. The pitching also took a hit with Zac Gallen’s hairline fracture, which deprives the staff of its only elite arm for the first few weeks of the season. It will be interesting to see if he decides to trade some of his older players like Nolan Arenado and Marco Gonzales mid-season to contending teams, but otherwise, this team’s focus will have to be on the development of its prospects and brighter days ahead.
11th Place: Chicago White Sox
Top 20: 0 (t-9th)
Top 50: 3 (9th)
Top 100: 7 (t-8th)
Top 200: 15 (t-8th)
Top 300: 24 (t-6th)
Since winning his only championship in 2012 (and making the playoffs in 4 consecutive seasons from 2009-2012), Max’s team hasn’t landed a playoff spot or a winning record in 8 years. The wheels really fell off in 2020, as devastating injuries to Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard decimated his pitching staff. This lowly ranking is once again based on the pitching side, where those aforementioned aces are slated to miss a large chunk of the season and Max Scherzer has begun to show signs of aging. There are a couple of complementary arms behind Scherzer who can help (especially Joe Musgrove), but overall this is a thin staff made even thinner by the injuries. Offensively, things are much more promising, with reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu leading the way. He’ll also welcome the return of top catcher Salvador Perez, with the promising Gavin Lux hoping to rebound from a lost 2020. Between Adalberto Mondesi, Starling Marte and Byron Buxton, speed won’t be hard to come by, and there should be decent balance across all offensive categories. It’s a rigid roster at the moment, with only two multi-position-eligible players, but the increased roster size, whopping 8 offensive bench players, and no spots being utilized for minor league prospects mean that Max should be able to make up for it. If he stays in contention long enough for Severino and Syndergaard to return, this could be a dangerous team in the playoffs, but odds are this season will culminate in a 9th straight losing record.
10th Place: Seattle Mariners
Top 20: 0 (t-12th)
Top 50: 0 (12th)
Top 100: 10 (t-3rd)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 22 (8th)
With only 1 playoff appearance in the past 12 seasons, Bono is hoping 2020’s team name change will also lead to a change of fortune. Unfortunately, his roster is devoid of elite talent, as he’s the only team in the league without a top-50 player. He’s tried to make up with it in depth and volume, as most of his players project to have significant major league roles this season and several are established veterans. The offense’s hopes rest on Randy Arozarena, whose legendary 2020 playoff run might propel him to stardom, but comes with a caveat of small sample size. Beyond that, Yasmani Grandal and Nick Castellanos are probably the only solidly above-average players on that side of the ball. The starting pitching lacks depth & quantity, with only Lance Lynn and injury-prone Hyun Jin Ryu likely to go deep into games and rack up wins/QS. There’s some young talent here, especially World Series hero Julio Urias, but not enough of it to raise the staff to even an average level. However, the relief pitching is well stocked and should supplement the starters. Meanwhile, the strange fascination with Tampa Bay prospect Brett Honeywell continues - Bono has surprisingly carried Honeywell as a keeper since 2017, despite Honeywell undergoing Tommy John surgery and never pitching in a major league game.
9th Place: San Francisco Giants
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 4 (t-6th)
Top 100: 8 (t-6th)
Top 200: 14 (11th)
Top 300: 20 (10th)
Despite the top-end talent, it’s hard to give Phil the benefit of the doubt, considering his woeful 13-49-4 record from 2017-2019 coupled with a 10th place finish in the abbreviated 2020 season. That said, his team is beginning to show signs of coming out of its prolonged slump and finally has a chance to contend for the first time in years. No team has a brighter pair of stars than Juan Soto and Mookie Betts, whose all-around brilliance will provide a strong offensive foundation. In fact, the offense as a whole should be highly competitive, as some of the long-awaited prospects like Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio have started to blossom into excellent major leaguers. He’ll benefit from the return of the powerful Yordan Alvarez, and he’s supplemented the core with the ageless Nelson Cruz to provide even more pop. However, there’s some roster flexibility concerns, as only two players currently possess multi-position eligibility and Cruz/Alvarez are DH-only. True to form, Phil is also using a couple of offensive bench spots on players far from the majors (Adley Rutschman and Vidal Brujan). When injuries and off days hit, the inflexible roster composition will likely cost Phil important volume and opportunities to pile up numbers. The pitching side is much less promising, as Jose Berrios is arguably the only trustworthy arm on the entire staff. Beyond that, it’s largely a collection of talented but unproven young arms, who could prove volatile in the ratio categories while also being unable to rack up big wins/quality starts because of inning caps, careful management, and/or starting the year in the minors. Two mid-level RP aren’t going to overcome the shaky starters, and the pitching woes will ultimately sink Phil for yet another sub-.500 season.
8th Place: Atlanta Braves
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 4 (t-6th)
Top 100: 6 (t-10th)
Top 200: 15 (t-8th)
Top 300: 19 (11th)
The Braves have taken their team name quite literally, with a staggering 10 actual Atlanta Braves on the roster (6 hitters and 4 pitchers). Although MLB’s Braves should have a strong season, this lack of diversification will leave him prone to slumps and unable to replace some of his starting lineup when the Braves have a day off. The offense is above-average, led by its corner infielders - Freddy Freeman and Manny Machado are both among the best players in the league. Batting average should be a particular strength, and there’s enough speed & power to complement (especially if Aaron Judge can finally stay healthy). Nick Senzel was one of the best picks of this year’s drafts as a post-hype sleeper, and strong spring trainings from Bobby Witt and Taylor Trammell give this team some youth & upside coming from the bench. The problem is the pitching. Ian Anderson is theoretically the staff ace, but with only 6 career starts under his belt, he’s hardly a proven #1. There’s also very little depth behind him, especially with Mike Soroka coming off a serious Achilles injury and Framber Valdez likely to miss a large portion of the season with a broken finger. With perennially inconsistent Robbie Ray and shaky Frankie Montas also already battling some minor injuries and the other starters beginning the year in the minors, there’s just not enough here to realistically stay competitive in the pitching categories. The trio of relievers are decent, but not the types of players to carry a staff, which will leave Patrick on the outside of the playoffs when all is said and done.
7th Place: Chicago Cubs
Top 20: 0 (t-9th)
Top 50: 1 (11th)
Top 100: 6 (t-10th)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 26 (5th)
It’s been a great run for Debbie’s Cubbies, with a championship in 2018 mixed among 5 playoff trips in 6 seasons from 2015-2020. Those teams were built on dominant pitching staffs, but Cubs has been absolutely decimated by serious injuries to the core of her team (Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber). The rankings and statistics would justify a Cubs ranking of 10th-11th place, as having only one top-50 player and 6 top-100 players both rank among the bottom of the league. However, Debbie has shown a consistent pattern of over-performing her beginning ranks, mostly on the basis of tremendous team depth, solid managerial skill, and a stubborn refusal to rebuild or give up on the chance to contend despite an aging roster. There’s probably not enough top-end talent for another championship run, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cubbies land the 5th or 6th playoff spot.
6th Place: New York Yankees
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 5 (5th)
Top 100: 9 (5th)
Top 200: 15 (t-8th)
Top 300: 21 (9th)
After mostly dominating BDBLP for the first half of the league’s existence, Denis has cooled off a bit in recent years, missing the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, before starting to round into form again with a 6th place finish in 2019 and 4th place finish in 2020. The long-term future looks bright, with super-prospects Wander Franco, Jared Kelenic and Mackenzie Gore on the verge of making a major-league impact to supplement an already-strong roster. But with all three of those players starting the season in the minors, the question becomes: will Denis’ focus on long-term success hurt his ability to compete in the present? If he starts slowly, the temptation will be there to sell off veteran pieces and tank for a premium draft pick, and there are enough early-season uncertainties to expect that a slow start could be in the works. Offensively, the core of the team revolves around star outfielders Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, as well as Corey Seager manning SS. There’s untapped upside for newly-skinny Vlad Guerrero Jr that could take this offense into elite territory. And speaking of upside, there might be no more volatile player in the league than two-way wunderkind Shohei Ohtani, whose range of outcomes include potential MVP candidate but also last year’s disastrous .185 hitting/37.80 ERA season. The decision to carry only Alejandro Kirk at catcher (assuming he doesn’t make a roster move before Opening Day) is highly questionable, especially given that Kirk doesn’t project to even be the starting catcher on his own team – and those lost at bats will be a lost opportunity. The decision to carry 4 Colorado Rockies could lead to streaky weeks, booming during Coors Field homestands but cooling off on road-heavy weeks. The offense also has a few categorical holes, as both walks and stolen bases are projected to be relatively weak relative to other top-tier teams. While the pitching was actually the stronger side of this team in 2020, I don’t love the composition of this year’s staff. The SP on the roster are all excellent, but there are only 4 of them at the moment (plus Ohtani). That could make it hard to compete in wins/quality starts/strikeouts. And carrying 6 RP feels like overkill, particularly when none of them are particularly lights-out. So while the overall talent on this team is probably somewhere in the #3-#4 range, and the young guns would make him a dangerous team by playoff time, the existing roster imbalance/shaky structure have landed Denis at #6 to start the season.
5th Place: Boston Red Sox
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 4 (t-6th)
Top 100: 8 (t-6th)
Top 200: 18 (t-2nd)
Top 300: 24 (t-6th)
The past two years have mostly been a disaster in Beantown, with a 6-13-3 record in 2019 followed by an 11th place finish in the shortened 2020 season. However, AJ has a long track record of success in the league, and he’s assembled a dangerous squad poised for a rebound. Perennial top-5 superstar OF Mike Trout is the foundation of the offense, and he’s surrounded by other potent veteran bats like JD Martinez, Kris Bryant, and Xander Bogaerts along with up-and-coming players like Yoan Moncada and Dylan Carlson. A deep bench should provide strong roster flexibility and volume as well. On the pitching side, Lucas Giolito’s emergence has positioned the Sox with 4 potential Cy Young candidates, as Jacob DeGrom, Stephen Strasburg and Tyler Glasnow flank him for easily the strongest #1-#4 in the league. He’ll hope that Corey Kluber, a former Cy Young winner in his own right, can find his old form and bounce back to provide additional depth. Meanwhile, top prospect Matt Manning looms as a potential impact player in the later part of the season and a quartet of proven relief pitchers should supplement the staff nicely. AJ’s fascination with certain players (namely Jonathan Villar and Brendan McKay) can be hard to comprehend, and parts of this roster are past their prime, but those are relatively minor critiques when there are so many elite players on this squad.
4th Place: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 6 (t-2nd)
Top 100: 12 (2nd)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 28 (t-1st)
Chris has strung together a great run in recent years, with 7 straight playoff bids. He’s a good bet to get there again this year, with a great combination of elite high-end talent and impressive depth. However, the offense wavered a bit last year (finishing 9th in the offensive categories compared to 1st on the pitching side) and there are a bit more age-and-injury question marks on this roster than you’ll find on the #1-#3 teams, which is why he’s slotted in here at #4. The left side of the infield are where the stars reside on offense, with Jose Ramirez and Trevor Story among the top hitters in all of MLB, but it remains to be seen how Story’s numbers might be affected if/when he is traded out of Coors Field ahead of his impending free agency. The remarkable Paul Goldschmidt appears to be entering his decline after many years of top-tier output, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether Giancarlo Stanton and George Springer will stay healthy enough to give this offense a chance at being elite. However, Chris has wisely stocked the bench with capable backups at all positions, so that helps mitigate the injury risks a bit. The strength of this team has historically been the pitching staff, and that should continue to be the case in 2021. Yu Darvish is the top dog, and his move to San Diego should only help his win/loss potential. Kenta Maeda and Brandon Woodruff are strong #2-#3 starters behind him, and there’s strong upside from the rest of the SP as well. However, injuries have already hit Dinelson Lamet and Carlos Carrasco, and Tony Gonsolin was unable to crack the Dodgers’ historically-great rotation, so there is some tangible downside to go with that upside this time around...Lamet in particular strikes me as a big injury risk. The relievers are probably BDBLP’s best from a skill/ratios standpoint, but with only 3 of them, he’s susceptible to losing saves/holds to some teams anyway. Still, if enough of his players stay healthy, this is a team with championship upside.
3rd Place: Miami Marlins
Top 20: 2 (t-5th)
Top 50: 6 (t-2nd)
Top 100: 7 (t-8th)
Top 200: 17 (t-4th)
Top 300: 28 (t-1st)
In what has been a recurring theme throughout league history, I finished in 2nd place in 2020 for the 2nd season in a row. That brings me up to at least six 2nd place finishes over the years (I’ve lost count at this point), but I’ve still somehow failed to capture an elusive championship despite so many close calls. Consistently among BDBLP’s elite teams, my Marlins have made the playoffs for 7 years in a row and haven’t had a losing record since 2008, and that’s unlikely to change in 2021. Offensively, it begins with star SS Trea Turner, whose power/speed combo landed him at #2 overall on the Player Rater in 2020 behind only Freddy Freeman. He’s flanked on the infield by hit machine DJ LeMahieu, breakout power hitter Brandon Lowe, and the talented but injury-prone Josh Donaldson, to give Marlins one of the strongest infields in the league. The outfield is relatively less impressive after the trade of Trent Grisham, although Kyle Tucker finally showed signs of breaking out in 2020 and Trey Mancini returns after winning his battle with colon cancer. Otherwise, it’ll be a matter of mixing & matching 4 lefties with significant right/left splits (Pederson/Schwarber/Nimmo/Hicks). Meanwhile, rookie-of-the-year candidate Andrew Vaughn brings a jolt of youthful upside to the UTIL/BENCH corps. Roster flexibility is also a strength, with at least three players eligible at every position except catcher and SS (2 each). After finishing tied for 1st place w/ the Phillies on offense in last season’s roto standings, the pieces are there to repeat that on the offensive side. The pitching staff has been rebuilt around reigning Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. With Bauer, Walker Buehler and newly-acquired Luis Castillo all ranking among the top 11 in ADP, there are three aces leading this full house (a league-high 12 SP on the roster). By electing not to roster any relief pitchers, there is tremendous depth behind the three aces, as all 12 of those SP are healthy and projected to start the season in their respective rotations. It remains to be seen if the zero-RP strategy will work as well as I think it will, as the ratios could suffer (on top of automatic losses in saves/holds on a weekly basis), but there’s plenty of talent and volume here. An 8th consecutive playoff bid seems likely, but only a championship can be considered a success at this point.
2nd Place: Texas Rangers
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 6 (t-2nd)
Top 100: 10 (t-3rd)
Top 200: 20 (1st)
Top 300: 28 (t-1st)
Andy has consistently landed among the top tier of BDBLP, with 12 playoff appearances in the past 13 seasons and multiple championships along the way. He drafts well, he trades well, he identifies talent well, and he manages his daily lineups and roster construction well. As the ADP numbers indicate, the 2021 rendition of his team is once again loaded and ready for championship contention. Leading the way is the precocious Fernando Tatis Jr, one of the most electric players in the league and a strong contender for the best player in fantasy baseball (ADP slots him at #2 behind only Ronald Acuna). He’s hardly the only standout on this offense, with Bryce Harper, Matt Chapman, Tim Anderson, and Will Smith all among the top options at their respective positions. On top of that, Andy has covered his bases with solid depth across the diamond that will help him cover for injuries – which are already rearing their head with Eloy Jimenez’s shoulder knocking him out for a large chunk of the season. There are a couple of question marks here – are the Dodgers seriously going to limit Will Smith to 90 games like they’ve suggested? Can Keston Hiura get his strikeouts under control and play good enough defense to stay on the field? Is Trent Grisham a one-hit wonder? But every team has questions, and with this kind of depth, there will be answers even when things don’t go according to plan. The pitching staff took a hit with the trade of Luis Castillo to the Marlins, but any staff that begins with Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw is going to look pretty great. And there’s some serious heat brewing in the bullpen (see what I did there), as dynamic duo Josh Hader and Devin Williams will significantly boost this staff’s ratios and save/hold potential. Still, the depth has taken a few hits during the spring after David Price failed to crack the Dodgers rotation (albeit in favor of Dustin May who is also on the Rangers) and Spencer Howard was also designated for a bullpen role. There are other teams with a stronger #3-#6 SP, so despite the elite arms at the top, I don’t think this is the best staff in the league overall. The #2-#4 teams in these rankings (Rangers/Marlins/Dodgers) were ‘flip-a-coin’ close to each other in my reviews. Still, this is a high-floor team because of the depth, and another playoff bid should be coming unless things really go south.
1st Place: Philadelphia Phillies
Top 20: 3 (t-1st)
Top 50: 9 (1st)
Top 100: 14 (1st)
Top 200: 18 (t-2nd)
Top 300: 27 (4th)
Coming off his first championship in 2020, Jonathan’s team enters 2021 as the clear frontrunners in my opinion. With a dominant 9 players in the top 50 ADP (3 more than any other team), this roster is star-studded with the likes of consensus #1 player Ronald Acuna, reigning AL Cy Young Shane Bieber, consensus #1 catcher JT Realmuto, and a fantastic infield that features the studly Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman, Ozzie Albies, and Anthony Rendon. I don’t think Jonathan had a great draft this offseason, but when you have a core like this, does it even matter? This offense tied with the Marlins for the most roto points last season, finishing no worse than 4th in any category, and there’s no reason to think that’ll change in 2021. If there’s a relative weakness on the team, it’s probably the starting pitching, but rolling out Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray and Zach Wheeler is still a hugely formidable top 4. Paired alongside 5 strong RP, it will be challenging to beat this team in the ratio categories and there could be weeks where it’s a clean sweep. With most of the roster comprised of proven players in the midst of their prime, this team is built to win now – and they’re likely to do a lot of winning before this year is done.